Analysing the sensitivity of input parameters for oil reserve estimation of DQ oil field in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulations

Abstract

The Monte Carlo algorithm is used widely in the areas of humanlife, such as currency risk calculations, mathematical probability and statistics, atmospheric research, materials research applications in laser ... In the oil and gas sector, the Monte Carlo algorithm is mostly applied in oil and gas exploration. Worldwide there are many researchs worked on the Monte Carlo algorithm application through oil and gas reserve estimation. In Vietnam, the reserve estimation with the support of simulation software is no wonder, particularly Monte Carlo algorithms have been adopted on the reserve estimation for many years. However, this algorithm is just applied to predict results. The analysis of the influence of each input parameter on the calculation for reserve estimation is quite restricted. Therefore the article refers to the sensitivity analysis of each input parameter for oil reserve estimation of DQ oil field in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulations in the territory of Vietnam in order to improve reliability of the results. Analyzing results the effects of the input parameters to the reserve estimation by volumetric methods in DQ oil field shows there are five effect parameters (Bulk rock volume, initial water saturation, porosity, formation volume factors, the net to gross thickness ratio), porosity which influence range varies from 0.66 ÷ 0.83 is the greatest impact factor to the assessment results.