Assessment of the sensitivity to the saltwater intrusion in Dong Nai province to 2030

Abstract

This work aimed at assessing the sensitivity to the saltwater intrusion (S) in Dong Nai province to 2030. Thereby, investigated areas consisted of 57 wards in Bien Hoa city, Long Thanh, and Nhon Trach districts – which are exposed to the saltwater intrusion. In 2014, the sensitivity index (SI) in Bien Hoa city was the lowest (S=26.46). The wards’ SI were in the range of low and medium-low SI (SI = 12.38–26.46). The next is Long Thanh district (SI=44.64). The SI range was in medium-low and medium-high level (SI = 32.22–55.08). Nhon Trach district is the most sensitive to the saltwater intrusion in the investigated area (SI=49.44), fluctuating in the range of medium-low and medium-high (SI = 33.72–58.47). To 2020 and 2030, the SI in investigated areas tends to decrease (in the range of low to medium-low) due to the development orientated to industry – municipal – services (agricultural aspects are declined). SI in Bien Hoa, Long Thanh, and Nhon Trach are 25.72, 34.63, and 38.15 in 2020 and 24.94, 31.74, and 36.43 in 2030, respectively. To sum up, in the period of 2014–2030, Vinh Thanh (SI= 58.47–40.58), Phuoc An (SI= 56.79–43.83) in Nhon Trach district, Bau Can (SI= 45.68–36.72), Long Phuoc (SI= 55.08 – 42.49), and Tan Hiep (SI = 46.89–37.35) in Long Thanh district are able to be significantly affected by the saltwater intrusion continuously increasing, leading to the interest in planning suitable coping solutions to minimize the damage from this process.