CÁC YẾU TỐ ẢNH HƯỞNG ĐẾN CẦU NHẬP KHẨU THỦY SẢN CỦA NHẬT BẢN TỪ THỊ TRƯỜNG VIỆT NAM

Abstract

Japan was the largest aquaculture importer during the period of 1980-2012 and the second largest in 2013 (after the United States) with an import volume of 15.3 billion USD, accounting for about 12% total world’s import volume. Japan has always been an important market to aquaculture exporters, especially Asian countries including Vietnam. The research and evaluation of factors affecting Japan’s import demand for Vietnamese aquaculture is of importance. This helps to forecast the import demand for Vietnamese aquaculture of Japan, thereby enhancing the activeness of Vietnam in the provision of aquaculture source of supply to better meet Japan’s demand and increasing the foreign currency flow. This research is confined in two products, namely shrimp and fish. Using secondary data from 1988 to 2013, the author utilized Engle – Granger cointegration approach to measure the long-term relationship and error correction model (ECM) to measure the short-term relationship between variables. Results indicate that factors affecting Japan’s aquaculture demand for Vietnamese shrimp and fish are different. In particular, factors determining the import demand for fish are fishing volume of Japan, the ratio of Vietnamese fish’s export price to Japan to that of Vietnam’s competitors and the real JPY/VND exchange rate. On the other hand, factors influencing the import demand for shrimp are Japan’s shrimp production volume, the real JPY/VND exchange rate and the Vietnam – Japan Economic Partnership Agreement.