REGIONAL-SCALE MODELING OZONE AIR QUALITY OVER THE CONTINENTAL SOUTH EAST ASIA

Abstract

Long range transport of ozone and its precursors can significantly impact the air quality in downwind regions. The problem of regional transport of ozone has been studied for more than three decades in Europe and U.S but not yet in Southeast Asia. This study investigated the regional scale distribution of tropospheric ozone over the Continental South East Asia Region (CSEA) of Thailand, Burma, Cambodia, Lao and Vietnam. The Models-3 Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ modeling system, driven by the NCAR/Penn State Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5), is used for the purpose. The model domain covers the longitude range from 91'E to 111°E and the latitude range from 5°N to 25°N. Two most recent ozone episodes of March 24-26, 2004 and January 2-4, 2005 were selected which represent the typical meteorological conditions for high ozone concentrations periods of a year. The episode analysis was made based on available data from 10 and 4 monitoring stations located in Bangkok of Thailand and Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) of Vietnam, respectively. The episodes were characterized with hourly ozone levels above the National Ambient Air Quality Standards of Thailand and Vietnam of 100 ppb at a number of the monitoring stations. The maximum ground level concentrations of ozone for March 2004 and January 2005 episodes reached 173 ppb and 157 ppb, respectively, in the urban plume of the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR). The simulations were performed with 0.5o 0.5° emission input data which was prepared from the regional anthropogenic emission inventory used in the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P), and the biogenic emissions obtained from the Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA). The simulated overall picture of ground level ozone concentrations over CSEA domain shows that the concentrations were high at the downwind areas at a considerable distance from large urban areas such as BMR and HCMC. During March 2004 episode the ozone plume moved northeastward following the Southwesterly monsoon and the maximum width of the modeled plume with the ozone above 100 ppb was about 70 km from BMR. For HCMC the ozone plume moved northward and the concentration in the city plume was lower with the width of isopleth of 50ppb of around 40 km. During the Jan 2005 episode the ozone plume moved southwestward following the Northeasterly monsoon and the width of the modeled plume with the ozone concentration above 100 ppb in BMR was 50 km while for HCMC the width of the 40ppb isopleth was about 30 km. The model performance was evaluated on the available observed hourly ozone concentrations. The model system was shown to be able to reproduce the peak ozone levels that occurred during the episodes at these two large urban areas, and capture the day by day variations during the selected episodes. The performance statistics MNBE, NGE, and UPA for the simulated ozone concentrations are within U.S. EPA guidance criteria and are comparable to those reported previous for other regional ozone simulations. It is shown that the MM5/CMAQ system is the suitable modeling tools for ozone prediction over the CSEA.