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APPLICATION OF ARIMA MODEL FOR TESTING “SERIAL INDEPENDENCE” OF STOCK PRICES AT THE HSEC

Cao Hao Thi 1
Pham Phu 1
Pham Ngoc Thuy 1
Volume & Issue: Vol. 7 No. 3 (2004) | Page No.: 5-12 | DOI: 10.32508/stdj.v7i3.3170
Published: 2004-03-31

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Copyright The Author(s) 2023. This article is published with open access by Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh city, Vietnam. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY 4.0) which permits any use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited. 

Abstract

The paper is an attempt to test the “serial independence” of stock prices at HoСhiMinh City Stock Exchange Center (HSEC) in Vietnam by applying the ARIMA model for preliminary assessment in terms of its market efficiency. From findings derived, it appears to be that: (a) ARIMA model could be applied for testing the serial independence of stock prices at the HSEC; (b) It is failed to prove that the HSEC market is not a weak-form efficient one; and (c) the “sheep flock effect” psychology is a factor dominated at the HSEC during the past two years.

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